Behind the Pakistan Economic Survey 2025–26’s optimistic narrative lies a stark reality of declining investment, widening inequalities, and a deepening education crisis that demands urgent national attention
The Pakistan Economic Survey 2025–26 opens its chapter on education with an encouraging portrayal of the country’s educational progress, creating the impression that Pakistan has made substantial advances across every sector of education. However, a closer examination of the data tells a different story. Once one navigates through the maze of statistics, significant gaps, inconsistencies, and troubling trends begin to emerge. The reality is far less reassuring than the optimistic narrative presented at the outset. It is therefore important to look beyond the headlines and lift the fog that obscures the true state of education in Pakistan.
Let us begin with public spending on education, as it is perhaps the clearest indicator of the state’s commitment, or lack thereof, to the sector. According to the Pakistan Economic Survey 2025–26, education expenditure during July–March 2024–25 stood at Rs 899,619 million. During the corresponding period in 2025–26, it declined sharply to Rs 356,499 million, a staggering reduction of Rs 543,120 million. In practical terms, this represents a fall of more than 60.4 per cent in education spending within a single year.
This decline is not an isolated phenomenon but part of a long-term downward trend. Public expenditure on education as a percentage of GDP has steadily eroded over the years: 2.0 per cent in 2018–19, 1.9 per cent in 2019–20, 1.4 per cent in 2020–21, 1.7 per cent in 2021–22, 1.5 per cent in 2022–23, while no figure was reported for 2023–24. For July–March 2024–25, the Survey reports education spending at just 0.8 per cent of GDP.
Surprisingly, the latest Pakistan Economic Survey 2025–26 does not provide the corresponding percentage for July–March 2025–26. However, a simple calculation using the same methodology employed in the previous Survey indicates that education spending as a share of GDP has fallen even further, reaching one of the lowest levels in Pakistan’s history. Such a decline raises serious questions about the government’s commitment to education and casts doubt on its repeated claims of prioritising human capital development.
Despite repeated commitments to allocate 4 per cent of GDP to education—a threshold recommended by international organisations—successive governments have failed to translate rhetoric into reality. The message conveyed by the Pakistan Economic Survey is loud and clear: education has increasingly become a low priority.
The consequences of this neglect become evident when one examines the country’s educational indicators. Consider the issue of out-of-school children, one of Pakistan’s most persistent challenges. The Survey claims that the proportion of out-of-school children has declined from 38 per cent to 28 per cent. Strangely, the document does not report the absolute number of out-of-school children.
Only 65 per cent of schools have electricity, 76 per cent have drinking water, 77 per cent have toilets, and 75 per cent have boundary walls
The situation at the pre-primary level is equally alarming. Enrolment in early childhood education has been on a consistent downward trajectory. It fell from 11.8 million in 2022–23 to 10.6 million in 2023–24 and is estimated to decline further to around 10.4 million in 2024–25. This means that Pakistan has lost well over one million children from pre-primary education in just two years. Given the well-established importance of early childhood education in shaping children’s cognitive, social, and emotional development, this persistent decline should set off alarm bells for policymakers. Instead of expanding access to early learning, Pakistan appears to be moving in the opposite direction, with potentially serious consequences for children’s future educational outcomes.
Against this backdrop, the Survey reports that the literacy rate has risen from 60.6 per cent to 63 per cent. While any improvement in literacy is welcome, the figure raises important questions. Literacy rates typically change gradually, particularly in countries experiencing rapid population growth and high dropout rates. Is the increase the result of genuine educational progress, changes in measurement methodology, or revised population estimates? The Survey does not explain.
The enrolment figures also warrant closer scrutiny. While the Survey reports growth in middle, secondary, and higher secondary enrolments, the Net Enrolment Rates (NER) tell a different story. Nationally, the Primary NER stands at 54 per cent, the Middle NER at 23 per cent, and the Matric NER at only 16 per cent. These figures are down across the board compared with last year, when the Primary NER was 64 per cent, the Middle NER 37 per cent, and the Matric NER 27 per cent. These numbers suggest that an increasingly large proportion of children either enter school late, repeat grades, or leave the system before completing their education. Expansion without retention cannot be regarded as educational success.
The Survey further highlights deep regional inequalities. Punjab records a literacy rate of 68 per cent, while Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa stand at 58 per cent each. Balochistan remains at the bottom with 49 per cent. Such disparities indicate that educational opportunity in Pakistan continues to depend heavily on geography. These inequalities not only restrict social mobility but also undermine national cohesion and inclusive development.
Gender disparities remain equally alarming. Female literacy stands at 54 per cent compared with 73 per cent for males. In rural areas, female literacy is only 44 per cent. These figures demonstrate that, despite decades of policy commitments, educational gender equality remains an unfinished agenda.
The condition of school infrastructure presents another disturbing picture. Only 65 per cent of schools have electricity, 76 per cent have drinking water, 77 per cent have toilets, and 75 per cent have boundary walls. Particularly alarming is the situation in Balochistan, where public schools reportedly have almost no toilet facilities (0.3 per cent). In 2026, access to necessities such as electricity, water, toilets, and secure buildings should no longer be major policy concerns.
Pakistan’s broader educational standing is reflected in the Human Development Index data presented in the Survey. Expected years of schooling remain at only 7.9 years, the lowest in South Asia, while the mean years of schooling stand at a mere 4.3 years. These indicators point to a deep and persistent educational crisis. The problem is not merely one of inadequate resources but also of the absence of sustained policy commitment.
The Pakistan Economic Survey 2025–26 raises far more questions than it answers. Rather than celebrating selective achievements, it should initiate a serious national debate on why Pakistan continues to lag on even the most fundamental educational indicators despite repeated promises of reform.
Tags: Pakistan education crisis, Pakistan Economic Survey 2025 26, education budget Pakistan, out-of-school children Pakistan, education policy Pakistan, TFT, Friday Times
The author is an educationist and social historian. He can be reached at: www.drshahidsiddiqui.com
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